The Bridgewater Associates global challenge: Forecasting the Future.

Forecasting the future: Inside Bridgewater’s global challenge to predict the next economic era

Forecasting the Future is Bridgewater Associates’ global forecasting competition that challenges participants worldwide to predict how artificial intelligence and modern mercantilism will reshape economies, markets and societies over the coming decade.

Created by Bridgewater Associates in partnership with Global Citizen, the competition offers a rare opportunity for students, professionals, researchers and independent thinkers to compete for significant financial rewards while contributing ideas about some of the most important trends shaping the world. Five winners will each receive US$25,000 and gain valuable exposure to one of the world’s most influential investment firms.

The challenge focuses on two transformative forces. The first is modern mercantilism, a growing trend in which governments actively shape economic outcomes to strengthen national power and strategic independence. The second is artificial intelligence, which is rapidly changing productivity, labour markets, global competitiveness and geopolitical influence. Participants are asked to develop evidence-based forecasts that connect these developments and identify how they may influence the future.

Beyond prize money, the competition offers networking opportunities, professional recognition and potential career pathways into Bridgewater Associates. It reflects Bridgewater’s belief that the best ideas can emerge from anywhere and that understanding the future requires diverse perspectives, rigorous analysis and intellectual honesty.

Key Takeaways

Forecasting the Future is open to participants aged 18 and older worldwide.
Five winners receive US$25,000 each.
No specific degree or professional background is required.
Winning participants may be considered for internships and careers at Bridgewater.
The challenge focuses on artificial intelligence and modern mercantilism.

Understanding the Forecasting the Future challenge

In an age defined by accelerating technological change, geopolitical uncertainty and economic transformation, the ability to anticipate future developments has become increasingly valuable. Governments, corporations, investors and institutions are all seeking better ways to understand what lies ahead. Against this backdrop, Bridgewater Associates has launched one of the most ambitious public forecasting competitions in the world, inviting participants from every corner of the globe to engage directly with the forces that are reshaping the international order.

Forecasting the Future is far more than a traditional essay competition. It is an exercise in structured thinking, evidence-based reasoning and predictive analysis. Participants are challenged to examine how two powerful trends, modern mercantilism and artificial intelligence, are likely to interact and influence economies, societies and geopolitics over the next decade. By opening the competition to the public, Bridgewater aims to discover fresh perspectives that may help explain a world that is changing faster than many traditional models can accommodate.

The challenge reflects a growing recognition that forecasting is no longer a specialised skill reserved for economists, intelligence agencies or financial institutions. In a connected world where information is widely available, valuable insights can emerge from people with diverse backgrounds and experiences. Bridgewater’s competition is built on this principle.

Why Bridgewater created forecasting the future

Bridgewater Associates has spent nearly five decades studying the cause-and-effect relationships that drive economies and financial markets. Founded by Ray Dalio, the firm developed a reputation for rigorous analysis, independent thinking and systematic decision-making. Over time, Bridgewater became the largest hedge fund in the world, known for identifying major economic trends before they became widely recognised.

The origins of Forecasting the Future lie in Bridgewater’s desire to deepen its understanding of what it views as a new global paradigm. For much of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, economic policy was shaped by assumptions favouring globalisation, free trade and increasingly interconnected markets. That environment is changing rapidly.

Bridgewater argues that nations are increasingly embracing what it calls modern mercantilism. Governments are taking more active roles in directing economic development, protecting strategic industries and securing critical resources. Trade policy, industrial subsidies, supply-chain resilience and technological sovereignty have become central priorities for many countries.

At the same time, artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative technology with implications that extend far beyond productivity gains. AI is influencing labour markets, defence capabilities, national competitiveness and economic growth. The interaction between these two forces could define the trajectory of the global economy for decades.

By creating Forecasting the Future, Bridgewater seeks to crowdsource ideas, challenge its own assumptions and identify individuals capable of thinking deeply about complex systems. The competition also reflects the firm’s belief in the power of an idea meritocracy, where the quality of an idea matters more than the status or credentials of the person proposing it.

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Who can enter the competition

One of the most remarkable aspects of Forecasting the Future is its accessibility. Unlike many prestigious competitions that require advanced academic qualifications or specialised professional experience, Bridgewater has deliberately designed this challenge to attract participants from a broad range of backgrounds.

Anyone aged 18 or older can enter the competition. There are no restrictions based on nationality, profession or educational attainment. Participants do not need degrees in economics, finance, political science or computer science. The competition is open to students, engineers, entrepreneurs, researchers, journalists, business professionals and independent thinkers alike.

This openness reflects Bridgewater’s conviction that exceptional insight is not limited to traditional institutions. History is filled with examples of transformative ideas emerging from individuals who approached problems from unconventional perspectives. By removing barriers to entry, the competition encourages a diversity of viewpoints that may reveal opportunities and risks overlooked by experts operating within established frameworks.

Although formal qualifications are not required, successful participants typically demonstrate intellectual curiosity, analytical discipline and a willingness to challenge assumptions. The competition rewards rigorous thinking rather than academic pedigree.

What participants must submit

The structure of Forecasting the Future is designed to test both predictive accuracy and analytical reasoning. Participants are required to develop a set of specific forecasts related to modern mercantilism, artificial intelligence or the intersection of the two.

These forecasts must be expressed in measurable terms with clearly defined outcomes and associated probabilities. Participants are expected to move beyond vague speculation and provide predictions that can eventually be verified as correct or incorrect. This emphasis on precision distinguishes the competition from many forms of commentary that rely on broad generalisations or ambiguous claims.

Alongside these forecasts, entrants must present a coherent framework explaining how their predictions fit together. This framework should identify the underlying forces driving change and demonstrate an understanding of the relationships between technology, economics, politics and society.

An analytical appendix allows participants to present supporting evidence, research, data and detailed reasoning. The overall submission encourages competitors to think systematically about the future while maintaining intellectual transparency regarding uncertainty and risk.

The challenge: What participants must do

Submissions require three main parts, kept concise (aiming for under 10 pages total, though exceptional work may exceed this):

Part 1: Binary Forecasts

At least 10 (earlier versions mentioned 20+) clear, yes/no predictions with probabilities and objective resolution criteria. All must tie to Modern Mercantilism, AI, or their intersection, covering 1-5 year horizons. Strong example: “There is a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% from 2026–2028.” Vague claims like “polarisation will increase” are discouraged. Calibration (probabilities matching real outcomes) is key.

Part 2: Framework & Synthesis

A max 3-page big-picture view explaining cause-and-effect dynamics, referencing key forecasts, and using charts or data where helpful. This is about coherent narrative, not isolated justifications.

Part 3: Analytical Appendix

Up to 5 pages of reasoning, evidence, models, or deeper dives. Use it flexibly to back up your thinking.

Deadline and Process

Submissions close August 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Top entries advance to a roundtable where finalists defend their forecasts in live debate. Winners are selected shortly after and recognised publicly, often at high-profile events like the Global Citizen Festival.

Start early: Gathering data, refining probabilities, and synthesising a framework takes time. Review Bridgewater’s public research for context, but develop your own original synthesis.

How to prepare and maximise your chances

Study the themes: Dive into Bridgewater’s papers like “We’re All Mercantilists Now” and resources on AI’s macro impacts.

Practise calibration: Use platforms like Metaculus or historical data to train probability assignment. (Bridgewater runs a separate Metaculus competition too.)

Build a coherent framework: Your forecasts should interconnect logically within a broader worldview.

Seek feedback: Share drafts with peers for critique on clarity and rigor.

Be original: Differentiate with unique angles perhaps regional impacts, second-order effects, or novel data sources.

Document everything: Evidence and transparent reasoning are crucial.

The prize money and rewards

The financial rewards associated with Forecasting the Future are substantial. Five winners will each receive a cash prize of US$25,000, resulting in a total prize pool of US$125,000.

For many participants, particularly students and early-career professionals, this level of financial recognition is significant. The prize acknowledges not only forecasting ability but also the effort required to develop rigorous, evidence-based analyses of complex global issues.

Yet the monetary award is only one component of the competition’s appeal. The professional opportunities associated with success may ultimately prove even more valuable. Winners gain visibility among senior leaders within Bridgewater Associates and the broader investment community. Their work receives recognition from one of the most respected organisations in global finance.

In an increasingly competitive professional environment, such recognition can create opportunities that extend far beyond the immediate financial reward.

Career opportunities and professional recognition

Forecasting the Future is also a talent identification platform. Bridgewater uses the competition to discover individuals who demonstrate exceptional analytical abilities and intellectual potential.

Winning participants may be considered for internships or full-time employment opportunities at Bridgewater Associates, subject to the firm’s standard recruitment and evaluation processes. Previous competitions have already shown that success can serve as a pathway into the organisation.

The potential career benefits extend beyond direct employment opportunities. Participation demonstrates valuable skills including critical thinking, probabilistic reasoning, research capability and the ability to synthesise complex information. These competencies are highly sought after across industries ranging from finance and consulting to technology, public policy and academia.

Finalists and winners also gain access to networks of professionals, researchers and thought leaders engaged in discussions about the future of the global economy. Such connections can provide long-term professional advantages that far exceed the value of the cash prize itself.

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The growing importance of forecasting

The popularity of Forecasting the Future reflects a broader trend. As the pace of change accelerates, forecasting is becoming an increasingly important discipline. Organisations that can anticipate change are often better positioned to adapt, invest and compete effectively.

The world is experiencing multiple transitions simultaneously. Artificial intelligence is redefining industries. Governments are rethinking trade relationships and industrial policy. Supply chains are being reconfigured. Energy systems are evolving. Demographic shifts are altering labour markets. Each of these developments creates uncertainty as well as opportunity.

Traditional forecasting models frequently struggle during periods of structural change because they rely heavily on historical patterns. Competitions such as Forecasting the Future encourage participants to develop new frameworks capable of capturing emerging dynamics.

Bridgewater’s decision to focus on modern mercantilism and artificial intelligence reflects its view that these forces will play central roles in shaping economic outcomes throughout the coming decade. Understanding their interaction may help explain future developments in everything from productivity growth and inflation to geopolitical competition and technological innovation.

A unique opportunity to engage with the future

Forecasting the Future represents a rare convergence of intellectual challenge, financial reward and professional opportunity. By inviting participants from around the world to engage with some of the most consequential issues of the twenty-first century, Bridgewater has created a platform that extends far beyond traditional forecasting exercises.

The competition embodies the firm’s belief that understanding the future requires diverse perspectives, rigorous analysis and a willingness to question conventional wisdom. It provides participants with an opportunity to test their ideas against some of the world’s most pressing economic and technological questions while competing for substantial rewards and recognition.

As artificial intelligence transforms industries and modern mercantilism reshapes international economic relations, the ability to forecast future developments will become increasingly valuable. Forecasting the Future offers individuals a chance not only to predict what may happen next but also to contribute meaningfully to the global conversation about where the world is heading.

For anyone with a passion for understanding complex systems, analysing emerging trends and exploring the forces that shape history, Bridgewater’s Forecasting the Future challenge stands as one of the most compelling intellectual competitions available today. The future remains uncertain, but those who can understand its direction may help define it.