Solar flare superstorm: The real impact on power, banking and communications.

Solar flare: What would happen if a Carrington-class or Miyake-class

The Global Impact of Carrington and Miyake-Class Solar Events

A Carrington-class or Miyake-class solar flare reaching Earth today would cause unprecedented disruption to global electrical grids and satellite-based communication systems. While the 1859 Carrington Event remains the most famous historical solar storm, recent dendrochronological evidence has revealed the existence of Miyake events, which are significantly more powerful and occur with a frequency that necessitates urgent mitigation strategies. This article examines the physical mechanisms of these solar super-storms, evaluates the specific vulnerabilities of modern undersea internet cables, and quantifies the potential economic consequences of a prolonged global blackout. By synthesising data from solar physics and infrastructure engineering, the following analysis provides a technical overview of how such an event would compromise the backbone of the digital economy and what measures are required to harden critical systems against future geomagnetic disturbances.

Vulnerabilities of Modern Infrastructure to Geomagnetic Disturbances

Key Takeaways

Extreme solar events induce powerful currents capable of destroying large-scale electrical transformers and power grids.
Miyake-class flares are approximately ten times more energetic than the 1859 Carrington Event.
Undersea fibre optic repeaters represent a critical failure point for global internet connectivity.
The economic cost of a super-flare event is estimated in the trillions of US$.
Early warning systems provide the only viable window for protective power grid shutdowns.

Solar event struck today

Solar flare events like the Carrington event and Miyake events could disrupt modern civilisation by crippling power grids, satellite networks, telecommunications and critical infrastructure. The most powerful solar storms ever recorded have occurred in the past, yet modern society is vastly more dependent on electricity and technology than in those earlier centuries, meaning today’s impact could be catastrophic without preparation.

Historical records and ice core studies reveal that extreme solar activity has struck before, offering both warning and perspective. This article explains in detail what the Carrington and Miyake events were, assesses their likelihood today, explains how long recovery might take and provides practical guidance to minimise risk and increase resilience as these events are unpredictable by nature.

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun can unleash intense bursts of electromagnetic energy capable of overwhelming electrical systems. While smaller space weather events happen regularly with modest effects on radio communications or satellites, extreme storms like those inferred from tree rings and ice cores represent rare but high-impact risks. Modern grids and globalised supply chains have no true immunity to severe geomagnetic disturbances, making understanding and preparedness vital for governments, businesses and individuals alike.

In an era when transportation, healthcare, finance, food distribution and public services all rely on continuous electric power and digital networks, a large-scale solar storm could halt life as we know it for an extended period. Understanding what such a storm would do, how to prepare and what individuals can do to buffer the impact is essential for a world increasingly reliant on interconnected technology.

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What were the Carrington and Miyake events?

The Carrington event occurred in September 1859 and remains the most powerful geomagnetic storm directly observed in modern history. Named after British astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed an intense flare on the Sun’s surface, its associated coronal mass ejection struck Earth and induced electrical currents across telegraph systems in Europe and North America.

Telegraph operators reported shocks, sparks and systems operating without batteries. Telegraph pylons threw sparks and communication lines burned. This event demonstrated that solar activity could directly affect human technology, even in an age when electrical infrastructure was in its infancy.

The Miyake events are named after Japanese physicist Fusa Miyake, who in 2012 discovered sudden increases in the levels of carbon-14 in tree rings corresponding to periods around 775 CE and 994 CE. These spikes indicate that extreme amounts of high-energy radiation reached Earth’s atmosphere, far beyond typical solar cycles. While there were no written reports of technological disruption at those times (before electricity and electronics), the magnitude of the radiation suggests events possibly stronger than the Carrington storm.

Researchers have linked these isotopic anomalies to powerful solar proton events, although some debate persists on whether other astrophysical phenomena, such as nearby supernovae or gamma-ray bursts, might be responsible. Regardless, the ice core and tree-ring evidence underlines the fact that Earth has been exposed to extreme space weather episodes far more intense than normal.

How solar flares and geomagnetic storms work

Solar flares are sudden releases of magnetic energy on the Sun’s surface. They emit electromagnetic radiation across the spectrum, from x-rays to ultraviolet and visible light. A related phenomenon, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), involves the ejection of billions of tonnes of magnetised plasma into space. When a CME is directed toward Earth, it can interact with Earth’s magnetic field, producing a geomagnetic storm. The intensity of the storm depends on the speed, density and magnetic orientation of the CME.

As the CME impacts the Earth’s magnetosphere, it induces geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power lines and pipelines. GICs can overload transformers, damage grid infrastructure and even trigger widespread blackouts. Satellites, GPS and radio communications are also vulnerable to both the charged particles and the electromagnetic surge.

The odds of a Carrington-class or Miyake-class event today

Determining the precise probability of another Carrington-class or Miyake-class event is challenging because extreme solar storms are rare. Solar activity follows approximately 11-year cycles of sunspot frequency and magnetic activity, but extreme outliers can occur at any point in the cycle.

Some scientific estimates suggest a Carrington-level storm has roughly a one to twelve percent chance of occurring in any given decade. Other research based on ice core and tree ring data suggests that even larger events than Carrington may occur once every thousand years or more, but this is statistically uncertain because the historical dataset is limited.

The Sun is currently monitored continuously by satellites such as the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). These observatories provide early warning of solar flares and CMEs, giving governments and utilities some lead time – typically hours to days – to prepare for a potential impact. Prediction is imperfect, however, and the most dangerous CMEs may arrive with little notice due to the variable behaviour of the solar magnetic field.

What would happen to modern life today?

Modern civilisation depends on expansive, tightly interconnected systems for power, communication, banking, logistics, health and transportation. A Carrington-class solar storm today could trigger cascading failures across multiple sectors.

Power grids and electrical infrastructure

The most immediate vulnerability lies in electrical grids. Geomagnetically induced currents can overload high-voltage transformers, damaging or destroying them. Transformers are expensive and custom-built components with long lead times for replacement. In a severe event, large regions could face prolonged blackouts.

Research suggests that major North American, European and Asian grid systems could experience weeks to months of outages if critical transformers fail en masse. Recovery hinges not only on repairing damaged components but also on re-establishing stable, balanced grid conditions to avoid further collapses.

Without electricity, urban systems quickly degrade. Water treatment plants, sewage pumping stations, heating and cooling systems, traffic controls, street lighting and electric rail networks cease to function. Hospitals and emergency services, although equipped with backup generators, would struggle without reliable resupply of fuel. Telecommunications networks require electrical power at cell towers and data centres. Satellite communications and GPS could be disrupted by solar radiation, affecting navigation, banking and internet connectivity.

Telecommunications and internet infrastructure

Global internet infrastructure relies on undersea cables, data centres, satellites and terrestrial networks. Solar storms can disrupt GPS signals and satellite communications, degrading timing signals critical for financial transactions and network synchronisation.

Cellular networks could falter with loss of power and damage to equipment. Even if fibre optic cables remain intact, the supporting electrical infrastructure sustaining routers, switches and data centres could be at risk during extended grid outages.

Transportation and aviation

Aircraft rely on satellite navigation and communication systems. In a severe geomagnetic storm, GPS signals may become unreliable or unavailable for hours. Airlines would have to rely on alternative navigation methods, increasing fuel consumption and flight times. Radiation exposure at high altitudes could exceed safe limits, prompting rerouting or grounding of flights during peak storm conditions.

Rail systems, particularly those using electric propulsion, would be affected by grid instability. Traffic control systems could fail, leading to delays and safety risks. Ports dependent on digital logistics and power could cease operations.

Banking, finance and commerce

Modern financial systems operate on digital infrastructure and precise timing signals from GPS systems. Disruption of electrical power and timing services could delay or interrupt transaction processing, clearing and settlement. Retail commerce, reliant on electronic point-of-sale systems and supply chain databases, would face interruptions. Even household finance could be affected if online banking, ATMs and digital wallets become unavailable.

Food and water supply

Electricity powers refrigeration, pumping systems and logistics optimisation tools. A sustained outage would compromise cold chains, increasing food spoilage. Water distribution systems require electric pumps; without power, many communities could lose access to clean running water in days. Emergency supplies might mitigate some effects, but widespread shortages could emerge quickly.

How long would recovery take?

The timeline for recovery from a Carrington-like event today would vary widely across sectors and regions. Some systems could resume limited functionality within days, while full restoration could take months or years.

Power grid restoration

Replacing large power transformers is a bottleneck. Many are custom-engineered with lead times of six months to two years. If a storm damaged significant numbers of transformers across a region, recovery would require global coordination to allocate resources, manufacture replacement units and install them. Strategic reserves of critical components, held by governments or utilities, could shorten recovery, but stockpiles are limited.

Telecommunications and internet restoration

Restoring satellite and ground networks might be one of the faster elements of recovery, provided physical infrastructure remains intact. Rebooting systems, rerouting traffic and replacing damaged hardware could take weeks. However, if data centres lose power and backup fuel supplies run out, restoration becomes more complex.

Transportation and logistics recovery

Once power is stabilised, transport systems can resume operations. Aviation may remain disrupted until GPS and communication services are fully restored or alternative systems deployed. Rail and road transport recovery will depend on traffic control systems and refuelling logistics.

Banking and commerce recovery

Financial systems might resume rapidly once power and communications are restored, but trust and liquidity could suffer if long delays occur. Contingency plans and offline transaction processing capability could mitigate disruptions.

Suggestions to minimise impact and increase survival

Because solar events are random and difficult to predict long in advance, preparation and resilience planning are essential. Governments, utilities, businesses and individuals can take steps to buffer the impact.

National and utility-level preparedness

Governments and grid operators should invest in hardening electrical infrastructure, including installing devices that can block or mitigate geomagnetically induced currents. Strategic reserves of transformers and critical components can shorten recovery times. Early warning systems and real-time monitoring should be integrated into emergency response protocols. Regular drills and cross-agency coordination ensure readiness.

Satellite and telecommunications resilience

Satellite operators can design systems with radiation shielding and redundant components. Ground networks can augment reliance on GPS by using alternative timing and navigation systems. Telecom providers should plan for power outages with backup energy supplies and rapid restoration contingencies.

Individual and household preparedness

Individuals cannot prevent a solar storm, but personal resilience planning can reduce hardship:

Maintain stores of food, water and essentials sufficient for one to two weeks. Household generators or solar battery systems can provide temporary power for critical loads. Keep offline backups of important digital data. Invest in portable battery packs for communication devices. Have alternative communication plans, such as hand-crank or battery radios, and familiarise yourself with community emergency response resources.

Community and business planning

Businesses should develop continuity plans that include offline operations, backup power and data redundancy. Small communities can establish microgrids and local energy reserves to sustain essential services during grid outages.

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The role of public awareness and policy

Public education on space weather risks and resilience methods empowers citizens to take proactive steps. Policy frameworks that prioritise infrastructure resilience, fund research and incentivise private sector preparedness can significantly reduce the long-term social and economic costs of extreme solar events.

Conclusion

Solar flares and associated geomagnetic storms such as the Carrington and Miyake events are natural phenomena that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. In 1859, the Carrington Event demonstrated the vulnerability of electrical systems even in their infancy. Ice core and tree-ring evidence of the Miyake Events suggests that even more powerful space weather episodes have struck Earth in the past.

Today’s global society is deeply reliant on electricity, digital networks and satellite systems that could be profoundly affected by a severe solar storm. The odds of another extreme event remain low in any given year but cannot be dismissed, and their random nature underscores the need for robust preparedness and resilience planning.

Governments, utilities, businesses and individuals all have roles to play in reducing vulnerability, protecting critical infrastructure and ensuring that recovery – should such an event occur – is as swift and effective as possible. History reminds us of the power of the Sun; modern readiness determines how well civilisation weathers its storms.

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