National food self-sufficiency

Why Guyana stands alone in a world struggling to feed itself

A new study published in Nature Food in 2025 has brought an unexpected Caribbean nation into the global spotlight. Among 186 countries assessed, Guyana is the only one that reaches full self-sufficiency across all seven major food groups: fruits, vegetables, dairy, fish, meat, plant-based protein and starchy staples.

This means Guyana can meet the nutritional needs of its entire population without relying on imports. In a world where global shocks, climate uncertainty and fragile supply chains have made access to food increasingly unpredictable, this finding is remarkable.

The study, conducted by Stehl, Vonderschmidt, Vollmer, Alexander and Jaacks, examined the gap between national production and the intake recommended by the WWF Livewell diet. They found that more than one-third of all countries fail to reach sufficiency in more than two food groups.

For small states, the situation is even more challenging, with many territories in the Caribbean, West Africa and the Gulf relying overwhelmingly on imports. Guyana’s performance therefore stands out as much for its rarity as for its significance. It provides a real-world demonstration that diversified agriculture, strong ecosystems and stable freshwater resources can create a balanced and reliable national food system.

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The global picture

Why most countries cannot feed themselves

To understand why Guyana’s accomplishment matters, it helps to look at the broader findings. Out of 186 countries, 154 can meet the needs of two to five food groups. Only China and Vietnam come close to Guyana, each reaching six. At the opposite end, six countries, mainly in the Middle East, do not achieve sufficiency in any food group.

The study emphasises that limited agricultural land, harsh climates, poor water availability and high population densities often restrict production. Yet economics also plays a role. Many governments find it cheaper to import staples than to produce them locally. This introduces hidden risks. When a country becomes dependent on a narrow band of suppliers, supply chain disruption can have immediate and severe consequences.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine offered recent examples. Lockdowns and port restrictions slowed exports worldwide, while the invasion of Ukraine shook grain markets and raised prices to historic levels.

As these events unfolded, governments rediscovered a truth long buried under trade optimism: food security relies not only on money, but on access. A supply chain can break faster than it can be rebuilt. The recent research shows that domestic production remains the strongest buffer a nation can have during periods of disruption.

Regional implications

How the Caribbean compares

For the Caribbean, the report paints a mixed picture. Ten countries in the region meet sufficiency in two or fewer food groups. Only Dominica is self-sufficient in starchy staples, while Guyana is the only state in the region that reaches sufficiency in vegetables.

Fruit production performs better, with several territories able to meet their needs, yet vegetables and dairy remain major weaknesses. Limited agricultural land, rising temperatures, soil degradation, high labour costs and frequent storms restrict production throughout the region.

Trade dependence is especially high because island nations have smaller internal markets and fewer agricultural zones. Many rely heavily on the United States for starchy staples, on Central American neighbours for animal feed and on Europe for dairy.

High import dependence means that Caribbean states face elevated exposure to global shocks, from freight delays to abrupt changes in export policy. As the report notes, countries with low response diversity, meaning they import most of a given food group from a single supplier, are most at risk.

Self-sufficiency by food group

Strengths, weaknesses and regional patterns

The Nature Food analysis provides a granular look at national performance across individual food groups. It shows that meat selfsufficiency is relatively easy to reach globally, with 65 per cent of countries meeting or surpassing their requirements.

Fish and seafood, by contrast, are among the most difficult to produce sustainably at scale. Only one quarter of countries reach sufficiency in this category. The Caribbean’s strong maritime heritage and access to rich fishing waters offer advantages, yet overfishing, pollution and climate shifts continue to threaten supply.

Vegetables are the most difficult category worldwide. Fewer than 25 per cent of all countries reach sufficiency, and 91 per cent of countries in sub-Saharan Africa fall short. Northern Europe, the Caribbean and much of South America also struggle because vegetables require consistent water availability and suitable soil.

Dairy is another major weakness for most regions because livestock systems require heavy feed inputs and reliable temperature conditions. According to the study, only European countries reach complete dairy sufficiency.

For plant-based proteins such as legumes, nuts and seeds, global performance sits below 50 per cent. Yet this is one of the categories with the highest potential for improvement. Legumes are biologically efficient, require less water than many crops and naturally enrich the soil with nitrogen. This is one of the areas where many countries could make quick gains through targeted investment.

Why Guyana succeeds

Geography, resources and policy choices

Guyana’s success comes from a combination of natural endowments and targeted agricultural planning. The country has abundant freshwater, extensive arable land and a low population density. Its river systems and coastal plains support rice production, while its inland ecozones can support livestock and mixed crop farming. The country also benefits from a strong fishing sector and a long history of cultivating fruits and vegetables suited to tropical climates.

Guyana’s agricultural development has been shaped by policies that encourage local production and long-term soil management. The diversification of crops, the upkeep of traditional farming knowledge and the preservation of fertile wetlands have created a resilient food system.

Although Guyana’s economy is currently experiencing rapid change due to the growth of the oil sector, the agricultural base remains solid. The findings from the Nature Food analysis show that biological resources still matter more than wealth when evaluating food independence. It is the structure of production, not GDP, that determines self-sufficiency.

Economic unions and shared vulnerabilities

Why larger blocs still fall short

An interesting part of the study is the evaluation of regional blocs. One might assume that economic unions such as CARICOM, MERCOSUR or the European Union Customs Union would perform better due to shared resources. Yet none of these groups reach sufficiency in vegetables, and only two reach sufficiency in fish and seafood. CARICOM meets only two categories: fruits and meat. Even when large markets pool production, climate, geography and crop distribution still limit output.

Shared markets can improve resilience, but they also create shared vulnerabilities. West Africa’s reliance on imported rice illustrates this. Some countries import up to 70 per cent of their supply from a small group of exporters. When supply is limited, all dependent states suffer. The famous blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given in 2021 showed how a single event can disrupt food access for entire regions. The study therefore emphasises response diversity as a critical form of resilience. Countries must avoid putting all their trust in one supplier.

Future projections

How self-sufficiency may change by 2032

Using OECD-FAO agricultural projections, the researchers modelled potential gains in production by 2032. The outlook is mixed. Meat production shows room for improvement, with Middle Eastern and North African countries expected to close their gaps significantly. Sub-Saharan Africa could also make notable gains. Dairy, however, is unlikely to change much. Only five countries are projected to reach full dairy selfsufficiency by 2032.

Fish and seafood show minimal projected growth, reflecting the ecological pressure on global fisheries. Plant foods are more promising. Legumes, nuts and seeds could grow sharply in Europe, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Starchy staples such as rice and cassava also have strong potential in Africa. Fruits and vegetables were not included in the future modelling due to limited data, though past trends suggest moderate improvement in vegetable production in Africa and the Americas.

However, the study notes that these projections remain conservative. They do not include transformative technological shifts such as precision agriculture, controlled-environment farming or cellular agriculture. Policy shifts could also influence future production, particularly in countries determined to reduce import dependence. Singapore’s “30 by 30” plan is one example of a country using technology to increase domestic output despite limited land.

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Lessons for policymakers

What true resilience requires

The most important lesson from the report is that national food selfsufficiency cannot be achieved through production alone. Instead, it is a balance of domestic output, diversified trade and stable nutritional planning.

Policymakers are increasingly encouraging citizens to consume local produce. Yet the research shows that even with rising national pride, most countries will still need imports to meet dietary guidelines. Trade will always be part of global food security. The challenge lies in reducing overdependence on a single supplier and strengthening internal capacity wherever possible.

Dietary change will also be necessary. Many regions produce more resource-intensive animal foods than needed while failing to produce enough vegetables and plant proteins. Correcting this imbalance requires a mixture of public education, agricultural incentives and long-term soil management. A shift towards more sustainable production systems can boost self-sufficiency while improving environmental outcomes.

The biological perspective

Why ecosystems shape national food systems

Food security is ultimately a biological question. Soil composition, rainfall patterns, biodiversity, pollinator health and fish stock stability determine what a country can produce. Small island states are often limited by land capacity.

Arid regions face water scarcity. Cold regions shorten the growing season. Even with advanced technologies, biology sets limits that cannot be ignored. Guyana’s advantage is that its ecosystems naturally support all seven food groups. Many nations do not share this balance and must compensate through trade.

A global system fit for the future

Why Guyana’s model matters for small states

The significance of Guyana’s achievement extends beyond its borders. Small states across the Caribbean and the wider world can study Guyana’s agricultural practices to strengthen their own production. While no two countries share identical conditions, the principles of diversified farming, water management and soil preservation have wide applicability.

The study also suggests that regional cooperation must evolve beyond trade into shared resilience planning. Countries can pool knowledge, technology and research to strengthen production in the most vulnerable food groups.

The world continues to become more interconnected, but shocks are becoming more frequent. National food selfsufficiency, once seen as a dated concept, is returning to the centre of economic planning. Guyana’s example shows that full independence is possible, though rare. For everyone else, the path forward lies in strengthening local production while building trade systems that are more varied, more equitable and more resilient.

Source: Gap between national food production and food-based dietary guidance highlights lack of national self-sufficiency

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