Is China's population really 1.4 billion? The shocking evidence examined.

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China’s population: Unpacking the numbers and why they matter

The narrative of China’s economic resilience often hinges on a powerful statistic: its vast population, officially cited as 1.4 billion people. This figure underpins the belief, especially prevalent during trade tensions with the United States, that China possesses an enormous internal market capable of absorbing economic shocks and offsetting potential losses from trade barriers.

The logic seems simple, a consumer base nearly five times that of the US should, in theory, provide a formidable economic buffer. However, a closer examination, fuelled by alternative analyses and demographic deep dives, suggests this foundational number may be significantly inflated, casting doubt on the true scale of China’s domestic consumption power.

Furthermore, even accepting the official figure momentarily, the significantly lower average purchasing power compared to the US complicates the picture. This article discusses the controversial estimates challenging the official 1.4 billion figure, exploring the methodologies behind alternative calculations and considering the profound implications for China’s economy and why it should matter.

The analysis presented here draws significantly from research and claims discussed in various programs, consistently arguing that the official 1.4 billion figure is inaccurate. Instead of a population behemoth, these analyses propose a dramatically smaller number, potentially altering our understanding of China’s demographic reality and its consequent economic strength. This exploration isn’t about sensationalism but confronting a critical question head-on, using a structured approach to dissect the available, albeit often opaque, data.

Deconstructing the official narrative: Why 1.4 billion faces scrutiny

The official figure of 1.4 billion people is presented by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and widely accepted globally. However, skepticism arises when considering China’s tumultuous 20th-century history and demographic policies.

According to analysis cited in the source material, China’s population stood at approximately 490 million in 1945 under nationalist rule. The subsequent decades under the CCP witnessed catastrophic events with profound demographic impacts: The Great Leap Forward (resulting in the Great Famine), the Cultural Revolution, and decades of the stringent One-Child Policy.

These events caused “countless death and injuries”, making the narrative of an uninterrupted surge to 1.4 billion seem improbable to some analysts. The sheer scale of population growth required to reach 1.4 billion from the mid-century baseline, particularly while navigating such destructive periods and restrictive birth policies, raises fundamental questions about the official data’s veracity.

Estimating the pre-pandemic baseline: Clues from external analyses

To arrive at a potential current population figure, the analysis suggests a two-step approach: first, rectify China’s population before the COVID-19 pandemic, and second, determine the pandemic’s real death toll. Several independent estimates regarding the pre-pandemic population paint a picture vastly different from the official narrative.

Russian researchers, analysing data around 2018, estimated China’s actual population might lie between 500 million and 800 million. One specific Russian expert highlighted the 490 million baseline in 1945, questioning the plausibility of nearly tripling the population given the intervening historical events.

Other Russian experts attempted a different approach, summing publicly available urban population data from every Chinese city and county. This yielded only 280 million people.

Applying a traditional 1:1 urban-to-rural population ratio, they estimated China’s actual population circa 2018 might be around 560 million. Even accounting for China’s unique circumstances, these experts concluded the population should likely not exceed 800 million pre-pandemic.

Japanese scholars offered another perspective, conducting research based on indicators like table salt consumption, arable land availability, and international grain purchases. Their conclusions pointed towards a pre-pandemic population range of 800 million to 900 million.

The source analysis also references its own previous calculations. One, based on a December 14th, 2024 program (cut from an October 8th live stream), compared China’s and India’s demographic trajectories. Around 35 years ago (circa 1990), India had 870 million people, while China had an official 1.1 billion, a difference of about 270 million.

Over the next 30 years, India’s fertility rate averaged 3 children per woman, while China’s official rate was roughly half that, at 1.7 (and potentially lower according to some experts). Mathematically, it seems improbable for India, a younger country with double the fertility rate during this period, to still have a smaller population than China today if the official Chinese figures were accurate.

Using AI and official CCP fertility rates, this model initially yielded a pre-pandemic population of 890 million for 2020. However, employing fertility rates from Dr Yi Fuxian, a renowned expert critical of official Chinese demographic data, the calculation resulted in a lower pre-pandemic figure of 695 million for 2020.

Further insights came via a Chinese YouTuber, Lee Muya (with 1 million subscribers), who shared information from a fan purportedly working for the World Health Organization (WHO) for decades in data collection and analysis. This WHO-connected source had studied China’s population and, in 2020-2021, attempted to replicate the Russian study by aggregating official local population data.

However, they found this impossible as many local governments had stopped releasing demographic data, and some allegedly fabricated information. Despite the incomplete study, this source concluded that China’s population before the pandemic was approximately 750 million.

Considering these varied analyses – Russian estimates (500-800M), Japanese studies (800-900M), comparative demographics with India (695-890M), and the WHO fan’s conclusion (750M) – the source analysis leans towards a conservative pre-pandemic baseline. While figures cluster between roughly 600 million and 900 million, the analysis settles on a working estimate of 800 million people in China before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

The uncounted cost: Reassessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

The second, and perhaps most shocking, part of the analysis involves estimating the true death toll from COVID-19 in China. Official figures reported by the CCP have been met with widespread skepticism globally, appearing remarkably low compared to infection rates and experiences in other countries. The analysis presented relies heavily on the calculations provided by the aforementioned WHO-connected source.

This source estimates a staggering 430 million deaths attributable to COVID-19 in China. This figure is derived from several data points and assumptions:

Baseline deaths

Before the pandemic, the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs reported an average of 10 million deaths per year, with winter months seeing the highest fatalities, around 1 million per month.

Funeral industry surge

According to individuals working within the Chinese funeral industry, their workload increased dramatically, reportedly eight to ten times the normal level during the peak COVID periods. Crucially, this surge primarily reflects urban deaths processed through official channels and does not include deaths in the countryside where local family burials are common, nor does it account for “spill-over” deaths – individuals who died because overwhelmed hospitals couldn’t treat other conditions.

Estimated monthly deaths

Factoring in these observations, the source calculated an average of 7 million deaths per month during the first three years of the pandemic (early 2020 to the end of 2022, before the abrupt end of the Zero-COVID policy). This yields a total of 252 million deaths (7 million/month * 36 months).

Post-zero-COVID surge

Following the sudden lifting of restrictions at the end of 2022, China experienced a massive upsurge in COVID-related fatalities lasting into the early months of 2023. Based on purported internal data from Beijing’s police department (indicating 8,000-10,000 daily hospital deaths in Beijing alone, excluding deaths at home, hotels, schools, or dormitories) and similar data from Tianjin (5,000 daily hospital deaths), the source extrapolated these figures across China’s over 2,000 cities and counties. This led to an estimated additional 120 million deaths during this short, intense period.

Initial 2020 surge

An additional 50 million deaths were added to account for the initial, chaotic surge in early 2020.

Adding these figures (252M + 120M + 50M) results in a total calculated death toll of 422 million. The analysis notes this is the first known attempt to calculate the total COVID death toll in this manner. However, it also posits that this figure might be incomplete, as it primarily covers the period up to early 2023.

With reports of ongoing excess mortality, the total number of casualties could potentially be higher, possibly reaching 500 million. This aligns, coincidentally or not, with a claim attributed to the founder of the Falun Gong spiritual practice, who stated in early 2023 that 400 million Chinese had died in the pandemic and another 100 million would perish before it ended.

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A new estimate emerges: China’s population between 300-400 million?

Combining the estimated pre-pandemic baseline with the calculated pandemic death toll leads to a startling conclusion. Subtracting the estimated 400 to 500 million COVID-related deaths from the estimated 800 million pre-pandemic population yields a current population estimate somewhere between 300 million and 400 million people. The analysis presents 400 million as a conservative estimate and 300 million as a more aggressive one.

Intriguingly, anecdotal evidence seems to support this drastic reduction. The source analysis shares information from a long-term viewer whose contact in Japan, described as honorable and well-connected in the salt industry, reported a significant change in trade.

This Japanese contact revealed that Japan is now selling only about half the amount of salt to China compared to just a few years prior. While salt consumption isn’t a perfect proxy for population, such a dramatic drop indirectly corroborates the hypothesis that China’s population may have roughly halved from its pre-pandemic level, lending credence to the estimate derived from the pre-pandemic baseline and mortality calculations (from ~800 million down to ~400 million).

Economic realities: Population, purchasing power, and the trade war

If China’s population is indeed closer to 300-400 million rather than 1.4 billion, the economic implications are monumental. The prevailing belief that China’s vast domestic market can readily absorb trade war shocks or fuel future growth needs radical reassessment. A market of 400 million is substantial, but it pales in comparison to the perceived scale of 1.4 billion consumers.

Critically, population size is only one part of the equation for domestic consumption. Purchasing power is equally, if not more, important. As noted in the initial premise, average salaries and disposable income in China remain significantly lower than in the United States and other developed economies. Therefore, even if the population were 1.4 billion, the effective consumer market in terms of spending capacity is much smaller than the raw number suggests.

Combining a drastically reduced population estimate (300-400 million) with the existing reality of lower per-capita purchasing power delivers a double blow to the narrative of an all-powerful domestic market.

It suggests that China’s ability to rely solely on internal demand to offset significant disruptions in international trade, such as those imposed by US tariffs or broader geopolitical decoupling, is far more limited than commonly assumed.

The “buffer” provided by domestic consumption is likely much thinner, making the Chinese economy potentially more vulnerable to external pressures than the official population figures would imply.

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Rethinking China: Implications of a smaller population

The analysis presented, based on the provided source material, paints a starkly different picture of China’s demographic reality than the official narrative. By questioning the 1.4 billion figure and presenting evidence—ranging from historical context and external analyses by Russian and Japanese scholars to intricate calculations of potential COVID-19 mortality based on leaked data and industry observations—it arrives at a potential current population between 300 and 400 million.

While these figures are estimates derived from unofficial and sometimes indirect sources, they raise crucial questions. The implications of such a demographic shift would be profound, extending far beyond simple statistics.

Economically, it challenges the fundamental assumptions about the size and resilience of China’s domestic market and its capacity to drive global growth or withstand trade conflicts. Geopolitically, a significantly smaller population could alter calculations regarding China’s long-term power projection and influence. Socially, it would point towards an unprecedented demographic crisis with severe consequences for labor supply, elderly care, and social stability.

The corroborating evidence, like the reported halving of Japanese salt exports to China, adds weight to the possibility that the official numbers obscure a more complex and potentially concerning reality. Whether the true figure lies closer to 300 million, 400 million, or another number significantly below 1.4 billion, the core takeaway is the critical need for greater transparency and independent verification of China’s demographic data.

Until then, relying on the official narrative without considering these challenging alternative perspectives may lead to flawed economic forecasts and strategic miscalculations regarding one of the world’s most influential nations. The true size of China’s population isn’t just a number; it’s a key variable that shapes our understanding of global economics, politics, and the future trajectory of the 21st century.

Sources:

A disaster of their own making. The demographic crisis in China – OSW (Center for Eastern Studies)

World Population Prospects 2024 – United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2018 National Economic and Social Development National Bureau of Statistics of China, February 28, 2019

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